- The Red Sox are -150 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Watch the game on NESN
The Baltimore Orioles (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-150) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 89-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 70-71 ATS.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -155 | O 10 -115 | +125 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 10 -105 | -150 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+14.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+13.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Chris Sale | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 127 games (+28.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 72 away games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+2.82 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 86-54 against the Run Line (+27.6 Units / 15.17% ROI).
- 89-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +35.1 Units / 19.38% ROI
- 72-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +12 Units / 7.9% ROI
- 55-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.45 Units / -15.85% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 70-71 against the Run Line (-11.55 Units / -6.24% ROI).
- 72-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.26% ROI
- 74-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.5 Units / 4.85% ROI
- 60-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.95 Units / -14.26% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has walked 38 of 219 batters (17%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has allowed three-ball counts to 22% of batters they faced (170/764 PA’s) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 12% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 15% (6/41) against Jack Flaherty in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 59% (507/864) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 50% (131/263) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (73/171) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 29% (101 SO in 348 PAs) this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 93rd Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 34% (28 SO in 82 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 90th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 29-17 (.630) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 53-40 (.570) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Orioles are 24-40 (.375) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Orioles are 46-25 (.648) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are 59-2 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are 55-3 (.948) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are 22-17 (.564) after a win as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Red Sox are 42-29 (.592) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 51-20 (.718) against the run line (33.5% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Orioles are 32-14 (.696) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
The Orioles are 184-115 (.611) against the run line (14.0% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are 99-53 (.651) against the run line (18.0% ROI) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .375 (636 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .535 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Red Sox are batting .316 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .189 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Orioles pitchers have walked 26 of 438 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 182 of 2,697 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.90 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.63.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,886 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 58 of 512 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Elbow, D10
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
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