Orioles vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 30, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Orioles (51-49) are -110 favorites vs the Reds (38-61)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer (3-2), 3.06 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (4-7), 4.48 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Baltimore Orioles (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Orioles vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 51-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 47-52 ATS.

Orioles vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles-1.5 +145O 9 -105-110
Reds +1.5 -175U 9 -115-110

Orioles vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s matchup with 64.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Hays has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+15.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 away games (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 41 of his last 66 games (+19.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 53 games (+17.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 57 games (+11.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 60% ROI)

Reds vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Fraley 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Joey Votto 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jonathan India 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Michael Papierski 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Reds vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Fraley 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Joey Votto 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jonathan India 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Michael Papierski 0.5 -140 0.5 -105

Reds vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jake Fraley 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Joey Votto 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Jonathan India 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Michael Papierski 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Reds vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Mahle 5.5 -125 5.5 -110
Dean Kremer 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 80 games (+25.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 80 games (+23.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 77 games (+10.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 away games (+7.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 71 games (+14.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games (+7.60 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+6.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+6.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 65-35 against the Run Line (+23.95 Units / 18.4% ROI).

  • 51-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.4 Units / 18.61% ROI
  • 45-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.6 Units / -8.81% ROI
  • 51-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 1.3% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 47-52 against the Run Line (-11.3 Units / -9.17% ROI).

  • 38-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -12.34% ROI
  • 53-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.83% ROI
  • 45-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.55 Units / -12.44% ROI

Opponents are hitting .342 (13-for-38) against Dean Kremer — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .244 — sixth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (4/19) against Dean Kremer — 6th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — eighth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (6/32) against Dean Kremer this month (4 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 21% (3/14) against Dean Kremer — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.

Tyler Mahle: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (83/267) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .432 (16 GB hits out of 37 GBs) against Tyler Mahle with runners on base this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (150/418) against Tyler Mahle on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 36% of Tyler Mahle’s breaking pitches (150/420) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Orioles are 29-20 (.592) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Orioles are 13-3 (.812) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Orioles are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are just 22-29 (.431) on the road this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Reds are just 28-7 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Reds are just 26-7 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Reds are just 12-48 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Reds are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Orioles hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 39% since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Orioles are batting just .226 with runners on base this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .669 (4,952 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Reds are batting just .102 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .259.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .276 (439 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Reds are batting just .133 on the road over the last 14 days (1 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Reds are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 279 of 3,755 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have won just just 15% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Reds have allowed 1.82 runs per game (180/99) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 996 of 10,040 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 53 double plays in 780 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): COVID, D10
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Travis Lakins Sr. (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Jonathan Araúz (Orioles): Finger, D10
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Side, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.