Orioles vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 09, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Orioles (24-33) are -110 favorites vs the Royals (18-37)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (3-4), 4.5 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (0-3), 9.327 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Baltimore Orioles (-110) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-110) on Thursday, June 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Orioles vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 24-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 21-34 ATS.

Orioles vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles-1.5 +140O 9.5 -120-110
Royals +1.5 -165U 9.5 +100-110

Orioles vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s matchup with 78.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trey Mancini has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.05 Units / 134% ROI)
  • Trey Mancini has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Rougned Odor has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.30 Units / 122% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 85% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 37 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 34-23 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 8.21% ROI).

  • 24-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 2.91% ROI
  • 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -13.52% ROI
  • 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 6.17% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 21-34 against the Run Line (-24.55 Units / -32.35% ROI).

  • 18-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.2 Units / -28.25% ROI
  • 29-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 4.64% ROI
  • 24-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -13.27% ROI

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .880 (22 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — third Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (50 Total Bases / 120 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — second Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .311 (135 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .297 (73-for-246) against Jordan Lyles this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fifth Percentile.

Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .708 (150 Total Bases / 212 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .441 — 0 Percentile.

Kris Bubic has induced opposing hitters to ground into 23 double plays in 123 opportunities (19%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .434 (244 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.

Kris Bubic has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (351/647) since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Orioles are 16-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .906.

The Orioles are just 20-67 (.230) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.

The Orioles are 11-2 (.846) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Orioles are just 9-21 (.300) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Royals are just 0-19 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.

The Royals are just 18-32 (.360) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Royals are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The Royals are just 15-3 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.

Orioles hitters have not struck out in 7 PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Orioles have won just 55% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 35% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Royals hitters have just 428 strikeouts in 2,225 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 529 strikeouts in 2,686 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters have just 100 strikeouts in 532 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (905.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals have allowed 1.84 runs per game (101/55) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Royals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Flexor, D15
  • Amir Garrett (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Gabriel Speier (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Cameron Gallagher (Royals): Hamstring, D10
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D10
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D10
  • Matthew Peacock (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Krehbiel (Orioles): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.