- The Orioles (24-33) are -110 favorites vs the Royals (18-37)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (3-4), 4.5 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (0-3), 9.327 ERA
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Baltimore Orioles (-110) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-110) on Thursday, June 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Orioles are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Orioles vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 24-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 21-34 ATS.
Orioles vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -120 | -110 |
| Royals | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 +100 | -110 |
Orioles vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s matchup with 78.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trey Mancini has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 33 games (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.05 Units / 134% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.55 Units / 84% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.30 Units / 122% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.25 Units / 85% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 63% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+7.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 37 games (+5.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 34-23 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 8.21% ROI).
- 24-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 2.91% ROI
- 24-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -13.52% ROI
- 30-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.9 Units / 6.17% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 21-34 against the Run Line (-24.55 Units / -32.35% ROI).
- 18-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.2 Units / -28.25% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 4.64% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -13.27% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .880 (22 Total Bases / 25 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — third Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (50 Total Bases / 120 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .311 (135 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .297 (73-for-246) against Jordan Lyles this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fifth Percentile.
Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .708 (150 Total Bases / 212 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .441 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has induced opposing hitters to ground into 23 double plays in 123 opportunities (19%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .434 (244 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .327 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has a first-pitch strike rate of just 54% (351/647) since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Orioles are 16-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Orioles are just 20-67 (.230) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.
The Orioles are 11-2 (.846) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Orioles are just 9-21 (.300) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Royals are just 0-19 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Royals are just 18-32 (.360) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Royals are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Royals are just 15-3 (.833) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have not struck out in 7 PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Orioles have won just 55% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 35% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 428 strikeouts in 2,225 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have just 529 strikeouts in 2,686 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have just 100 strikeouts in 532 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .338 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (905.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Orioles pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have allowed 1.84 runs per game (101/55) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Royals vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Amir Garrett (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
- Gabriel Speier (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
- Cameron Gallagher (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D10
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D10
- Matthew Peacock (Royals): Undisclosed, D15
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Krehbiel (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
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