- The Twins (44-36) are -250 favorites vs the Orioles (35-43)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (4-7), 4.93 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (4-1), 2.17 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Baltimore Orioles (+200) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-250) on Saturday, July 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 35-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-44 ATS.
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 +100 | O 9 -115 | +200 |
| Twins | -1.5 -120 | U 9 -105 | -250 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 64.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+18.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 58 games (+15.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 58 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 78 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 49-29 against the Run Line (+13.6 Units / 13.65% ROI).
- 35-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 8.94% ROI
- 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -11.74% ROI
- 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 4.18% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 36-44 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -9.88% ROI).
- 44-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 3.78% ROI
- 36-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -7.13% ROI
- 39-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.96% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .756 (31 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .228 (38-for-167) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — fourth Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .709 (186 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .482 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .413 (69 Total Bases / 167 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — third Percentile.
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 52% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (451/874) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (85 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (302/581) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (528/1,371) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 94th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are just 8-25 (.242) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 26-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Orioles are 17-4 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Orioles are just 11-35 (.239) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Twins are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Twins are 39-12 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .291 (4,638 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .220 (1,582 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Twins hitters have just 36 strikeouts in 237 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .521 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .567.
The Twins are batting .254 with two outs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 42 of 689 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Twins have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The longest HR allowed by the Twins pitchers this season traveled 444.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 456.4
Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Ramón Urías (Orioles): Oblique, D10
- Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60
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