Orioles vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 02, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Twins (44-36) are -250 favorites vs the Orioles (35-43)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (4-7), 4.93 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (4-1), 2.17 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Baltimore Orioles (+200) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-250) on Saturday, July 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 35-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-44 ATS.

Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 +100O 9 -115+200
Twins -1.5 -120U 9 -105-250

Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 64.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Orioles and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.20 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jorge Mateo has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+18.60 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Byron Buxton 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Carlos Correa 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Gio Urshela 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Byron Buxton 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Gio Urshela 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jorge Polanco 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Byron Buxton 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Carlos Correa 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Gio Urshela 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sonny Gray 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Jordan Lyles 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 58 games (+15.40 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 58 games (+11.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 78 games (+11.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.90 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 49-29 against the Run Line (+13.6 Units / 13.65% ROI).

  • 35-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.2 Units / 8.94% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -11.74% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 4.18% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 36-44 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -9.88% ROI).

  • 44-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 3.78% ROI
  • 36-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.25 Units / -7.13% ROI
  • 39-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.85 Units / -0.96% ROI

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .756 (31 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .363 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .228 (38-for-167) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — fourth Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed an OPS of .709 (186 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .482 — second Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .413 (69 Total Bases / 167 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — third Percentile.

Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 52% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (451/874) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (85 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (302/581) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (528/1,371) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 94th Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Orioles are just 8-25 (.242) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 26-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Orioles are 17-4 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

The Orioles are just 11-35 (.239) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Twins are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Twins are 31-5 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Twins are 39-12 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Orioles have a winning percentage of just 39% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .291 (4,638 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Orioles hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .220 (1,582 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Twins hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Twins hitters have just 36 strikeouts in 237 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins hitters are slugging just .521 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .567.

The Twins are batting .254 with two outs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have walked 42 of 689 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 6.10 (967.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Twins have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The longest HR allowed by the Twins pitchers this season traveled 444.0 feet — — tied for 3rd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 456.4

Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Smith (Twins): Trap, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Oblique, D10
  • Kyle Bradish (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Alexander Wells (Orioles): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.