- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cole Irvin
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Baltimore Orioles (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-150) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 51-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 44-44 ATS.
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 68.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+8.15 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.85 Units / 98% ROI)
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cole Irvin | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 42 away games (+16.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 83 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 away games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 51-35 against the Run Line (+14.8 Units / 13.57% ROI).
- 51-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.75 Units / 12.63% ROI
- 44-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 4.99% ROI
- 36-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -13.08% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-44 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -1.25% ROI).
- 45-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.25 Units / -8.28% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -14.18% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.85 Units / 6.07% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (54/309) against Cole Irvin on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 26% (96/371) against Cole Irvin on low breaking pitches since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (21/111) against Cole Irvin on inside fastballs since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .300 (60-for-200) against Cole Irvin on low non-fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .198 — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 77% of the time (724/938) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 79% of the time (408/519) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has elevated his fastball 79% of the time (408/519) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed an OPS of just .391 (47 PA’s) — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .686 — 98th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a road loss since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Orioles are 20-7 (.741) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Orioles are 25-17 (.595) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 19-4 (.826) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Orioles are batting just .160 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Orioles are batting .395 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 58% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 677 strikeouts in 2,508 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are batting just .221 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .299 (420 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Orioles have won 48% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 149 of 2,211 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 243 of 3,228 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Twins have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Hicks (Orioles): Achilles, Day-to-Day
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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