- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Baltimore Orioles (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Saturday, July 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 52-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 44-45 ATS.
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -110 | +105 |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -110 | -125 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 55.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+8.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Max Kepler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Carlos Correa | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Max Kepler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Tyler Wells | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 43 away games (+17.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 84 games (+16.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 43 away games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+13.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 52-35 against the Run Line (+15.8 Units / 14.29% ROI).
- 52-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.15 Units / 13.79% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 3.72% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -11.9% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-45 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -2.15% ROI).
- 45-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -9.45% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15 Units / -15.18% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 7.03% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Wells has allowed a BABIP of .169 against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has allowed a BABIP of .192 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has allowed an OBP of just .236 (382 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .203 (30-for-148) against Tyler Wells in non-two strike counts this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 53% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (521/984) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (45 Total Bases / 174 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 92nd Percentile.
Sonny Gray has an ERA of 2.50 (93.2 IP)this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.87 — 97th Percentile.
The last hit on a Sonny Gray breaking pitch was June 26th. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 24.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 51-25 (.671) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Orioles are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Orioles are 22-13 (.629) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Orioles are 67-46 (.593) after a loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 19-4 (.826) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Twins are just 19-34 (.358) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Orioles are batting just .160 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 60% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .218 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters have 897 strikeouts in 3,349 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters are slugging just .152 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Twins hitters have 216 strikeouts in 829 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 149 of 2,221 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Orioles have won 48% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Twins have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 2.88 (271.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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