- The Twins are -155 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Watch the game on BSN
The Baltimore Orioles (+125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-155) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 53-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 44-46 ATS.
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -150 | O 9 -115 | +125 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -105 | -155 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.30 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 1.5 +210 | 1.5 -275 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +105 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 44 away games (+18.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 85 games (+17.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 away games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 53-35 against the Run Line (+16.8 Units / 14.93% ROI).
- 53-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.2 Units / 14.61% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 3.68% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -11.76% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 44-46 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -3.04% ROI).
- 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -10.34% ROI
- 38-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -15 Units / -15.02% ROI
- 48-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 6.95% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OBP of .302 (205 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed an OPS of .658 (205 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .496 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (82/137) against Kyle Gibson on fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 18% (78 SO in 437 PAs) this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 15th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 72% (550/761) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 71% (1,123/1,581) this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 52% (532/1,028) against Joe Ryan in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 58% (442/761) against Joe Ryan this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 51-25 (.671) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Orioles are 11-5 (.688) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Orioles are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Orioles are 99-6 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 19-34 (.358) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 31-12 (.721) against the run line (34.8% ROI) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Orioles are batting just .160 with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Orioles are 71-41 (.628) against the run line (18.4% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 688 strikeouts in 2,553 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (833 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters are slugging just .367 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Twins hitters have 216 strikeouts in 833 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Orioles have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.9 MPH (2,190 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have walked 251 of 3,301 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strike rate of 66% this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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