- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Dean Kremer, 1.80 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle, 3.37 ERA
The Baltimore Orioles (+120) visit CenturyLink Sports Complex to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Friday, March 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Fort Myers.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Orioles vs Twins Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Orioles are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 6-6 ATS.
Orioles vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -145 | O 11.5 -105 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | U 11.5 -115 | -145 |
Orioles vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rylan Bannon has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rylan Bannon has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.70 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.70 Units / 135% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 51 away games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 55 away games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+7.05 Units / 14% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -5.22% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -16.25% ROI
- 10-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.75 Units / 44.12% ROI
- 3-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -52.09% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 6-6 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -4.18% ROI).
- 6-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 19.78% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.8 Units / -13.14% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 6.25% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .219 (54-for-247) against Dean Kremer with two-strikes last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — fifth Percentile.
Dean Kremer had a strikeout rate of just 25% (19/76) with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .219 (79-for-360) against Dean Kremer with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .165 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .275 (106-for-386) against Dean Kremer’s non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — fifth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a line drive rate of just 16% (26/161) against Tyler Mahle last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 32% (103/326) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (23/155) versus Tyler Mahle on fastballs last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% (135/505) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 28-7 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Orioles are 14-68 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Orioles are 9-69 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 10-42 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles batted just .152 with two-strikes last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,578 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .470 (3,221 PA’s) with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins have hit 2,031 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have put 40% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (1334.2 IP) against division opponents since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
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