- The Orioles are -115 favorites vs the Yankees
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tyler Wells
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Watch the game on YES
The Baltimore Orioles (-115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-105) on Monday, July 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 49-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 45-39 ATS.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 47 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 74% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+8.55 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Bauers has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Yankees vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Adley Rutschman | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Austin Hays | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Yankees vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 38 away games (+16.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 away games (+7.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 61% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+10.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 54 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 games at home (+4.15 Units / 7% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 49-33 against the Run Line (+14.7 Units / 14.09% ROI).
- 49-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.85 Units / 13.26% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 1.89% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -10.08% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 45-39 against the Run Line (+6.5 Units / 6.28% ROI).
- 46-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -16.78% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.1 Units / 7.61% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Wells has allowed a BABIP of .167 against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .286 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .182 (10-for-55) against Tyler Wells when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has allowed an OBP of just .232 (358 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Wells has allowed a BABIP of .193 this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Domingo German has allowed 7 home runs on the first pitch of at-bats this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 53% (107/203) against Domingo German with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (510/1,224) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (170/471) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are 10-4 (.714) after a road loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Orioles are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Orioles are 48-25 (.658) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Orioles are 19-6 (.760) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 27-47 (.365) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 35-30 (.538) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Yankees are 13-10 (.565) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Orioles are batting just .233 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Orioles hitters have drawn 94 walks in 890 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .265 over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 689 of their 3,077 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 229 walks in 2,189 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Yankees are batting just .231 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 146 of 2,177 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.43 (2200.2 IP) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Yankees pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.15 (1147.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.94.
Yankees vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- James McCann (Orioles): Ankle, D10
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