- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Orioles
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Watch the game on YES
The Baltimore Orioles (+100) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-120) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 49-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 46-39 ATS.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -115 | +100 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -105 | -120 |
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+8.15 Units / 56% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jake Bauers has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Yankees vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 39 away games (+15.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 away games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+11.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 55 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+8.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.40 Units / 58% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 49-34 against the Run Line (+13.7 Units / 13.01% ROI).
- 49-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 12.08% ROI
- 42-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.7 Units / 2.97% ROI
- 36-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -11.11% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 46-39 against the Run Line (+7.5 Units / 7.13% ROI).
- 47-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 4.65% ROI
- 36-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -15.5% ROI
- 46-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 6.41% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .231 (40-for-173) against Kyle Gibson with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — fourth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strike rate of just 62% (242/393) in two strike counts this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 11th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a strikeout rate of just 12% (12 SO in 96 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents batted .364 (47-for-129) against Kyle Gibson with runners in scoring position in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 18% (91/515) versus Chris Bassitt in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 9% (5/55) against Chris Bassitt on curveballs in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a swing rate of just 26% (190/745) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — fourth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.7 MPH (511 batted balls) in 2022 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.3 — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are 19-6 (.760) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Orioles are 21-12 (.636) after a loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Orioles are 20-95 (.174) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Orioles are 96-6 (.941) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .872.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 27-47 (.365) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees are 13-10 (.565) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 16-67 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .397 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Orioles are batting just .233 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Orioles are batting .255 with two outs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 59% on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 229 walks in 2,192 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Games involving the Yankees went UNDER in 80% of their games (51.2% ROI) after a home loss this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Yankees are 27-47 (.365) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .170 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Yankees have allowed 0.94 runs per game (80/85) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.34.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (2209.2 IP) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Yankees vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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