- The Orioles are -130 favorites vs the Yankees
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Watch the game on YES
The Baltimore Orioles (-130) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (+110) on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Orioles are 50-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 47-40 ATS.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -130 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -115 | +110 |
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Orioles vs Yankees and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Adam Frazier has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Bauers has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games at home (+13.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Yankees vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Yankees vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Yankees vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Westburg | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Colton Cowser | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Yankees vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Luis Severino | 4.5 -190 | 4.5 +140 |
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 41 away games (+14.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 games (+13.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 away games (+9.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 29% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+8.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games at home (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 47 games at home (+4.95 Units / 7% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 50-35 against the Run Line (+13.5 Units / 12.49% ROI).
- 50-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 11.85% ROI
- 43-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 3.97% ROI
- 36-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -12.06% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 47-40 against the Run Line (+7.3 Units / 6.76% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 4.42% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -14.1% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.9 Units / 5.07% ROI
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.05 (83.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 3.97 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (58/182) against Kyle Bradish on pitches in the strike zone this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (135/469) against Kyle Bradish on pitches in the strike zone since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (19-for-57) against Kyle Bradish’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .230 — eighth Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has not induced opposing hitters to ground into a double play in 34 opportunities (0%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 69 of Luis Severino’s 280 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 25%) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 35% — fourth Percentile.
72% of Luis Severino’s called strikeouts are low since last season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 95th Percentile.
Luis Severino has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 5 double plays in 111 opportunities (4%) since last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 11% — fifth Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Orioles are 97-6 (.942) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Orioles are 20-96 (.172) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Orioles are 41-12 (.774) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .644.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 27-48 (.360) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Yankees are 35-30 (.538) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Yankees are 16-68 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting .393 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .353.
The Orioles are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Orioles are batting .253 with two outs this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Orioles are 71-41 (.628) against the run line (18.4% ROI) after a loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters have drawn 230 walks in 2,202 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 711 of their 3,184 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees are batting just .227 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Orioles pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .173 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (1174.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
The Yankees have allowed 0.95 runs per game (83/87) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 40% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Vertigo, D10
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Austin Voth (Orioles): Elbow, D15
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Cionel Pérez (Orioles): Forearm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D15
- Austin Hays (Orioles): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Mychal Givens (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
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