- The – (109-48) are favorites vs the – (109-48)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Austin Voth (5-3), 4.19 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (11-4), 2.56 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Baltimore Orioles () visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees () on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 81-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 70-86 ATS.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | O | ||
| Yankees | U |
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 31 away games (+15.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+15.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.15 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 10 games (+13.70 Units / 71% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+10.10 Units / 92% ROI)
Yankees vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Yankees vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Yankees vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
| Austin Voth | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 137 games (+30.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 87 of their last 137 games (+25.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 52 of their last 90 games (+13.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 53 away games (+10.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games (+9.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 73 games at home (+16.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+7.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 97-60 against the Run Line (+24.15 Units / 11.65% ROI).
- 81-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +26.15 Units / 15.32% ROI
- 70-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -18 Units / -10.43% ROI
- 81-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.25 Units / 2.44% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -9.92% ROI).
- 96-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.36% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -6.11% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -2.86% ROI
Austin Voth: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .390 (46-for-118) against Austin Voth versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (72/235) against Austin Voth since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .214 (75-for-350) against Austin Voth with two-strikes since the start of last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .158 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (78/247) against Austin Voth on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (526/966) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 58% of the time (346/592) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total SL; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 52% of the time (1,376/2,647) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 62% of the time (264/427) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are 27-7 (.794) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Orioles are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Orioles are 8-66 (.108) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Orioles are just 14-26 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 10-39 (.204) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Yankees are 56-23 (.709) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Yankees are 17-13 (.567) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Yankees are 9-46 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .154 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Orioles hitters have 413 strikeouts in 1,663 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles hitters have a swing rate of 49% against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,481 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have drawn 118 walks in 1,195 PA’s (10%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Yankees hitters have drawn 341 walks in 3,384 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.79 (1292.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Orioles pitchers since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 9 of 52 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Ramón Urías (Orioles): Knee, D10
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