Orioles vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (96-59) are -175 favorites vs the Orioles (80-76)
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (11-11), 4.55 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (2-3), 3.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on Prime Video

The Baltimore Orioles (+145) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-175) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Orioles are 80-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 70-85 ATS.

Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Orioles+1.5 -145O 7.5 -105+145
Yankees -1.5 +120U 7.5 -115-175

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)

Yankees vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +1350 0.5

Yankees vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Yankees vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Yankees vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Domingo German 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
Jordan Lyles 3.5 -160 3.5 +115
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 52 away games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 72 games at home (+18.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-60 against the Run Line (+23.15 Units / 11.24% ROI).

  • 80-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.6 Units / 14.5% ROI
  • 70-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -17 Units / -9.91% ROI
  • 80-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 1.88% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 70-85 against the Run Line (-17.1 Units / -9.42% ROI).

  • 96-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 0.98% ROI
  • 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -5.56% ROI
  • 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -3.47% ROI

Opponents are hitting .280 (192-for-685) against Jordan Lyles this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — sixth Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has struck out just 17% (69/411) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed 14 home runs with two-strikes this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .421 (146 Total Bases / 347 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 0 Percentile.

Domingo Germán: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Domingo German since the start of last season is 381.4 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 399.0

Domingo German has allowed a slugging percentage of .644 (65 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on fastballs away since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 0 Percentile.

Domingo German has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (522/1,348) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Domingo German has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (600/1,798) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Orioles are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Orioles are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Orioles are 26-7 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Orioles are 13-66 (.165) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 40-37 (.519) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 54-12 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Orioles are batting just .155 with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,461 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Orioles hitters have drawn 276 walks in 3,730 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .971 (131 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of .750 (3,701 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,381 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.82 (1283.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% against Yankees pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
  • John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
  • Ramón Urías (Orioles): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.