- The Yankees (96-59) are -175 favorites vs the Orioles (80-76)
- Orioles starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles (11-11), 4.55 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (2-3), 3.30 ERA
- Watch the game on Prime Video
The Baltimore Orioles (+145) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-175) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Orioles are 80-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 70-85 ATS.
Orioles vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Orioles and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 27 away games (+15.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+15.55 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ramon Urias has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+12.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Yankees vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Yankees vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Yankees vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Orioles Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 52 away games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 72 games at home (+18.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 96-60 against the Run Line (+23.15 Units / 11.24% ROI).
- 80-76 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.6 Units / 14.5% ROI
- 70-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -17 Units / -9.91% ROI
- 80-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.25 Units / 1.88% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 70-85 against the Run Line (-17.1 Units / -9.42% ROI).
- 96-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 0.98% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.95 Units / -3.47% ROI
Jordan Lyles: Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .280 (192-for-685) against Jordan Lyles this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — sixth Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has struck out just 17% (69/411) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — eighth Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed 14 home runs with two-strikes this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of .421 (146 Total Bases / 347 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 0 Percentile.
Domingo Germán: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Domingo German since the start of last season is 381.4 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 399.0
Domingo German has allowed a slugging percentage of .644 (65 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on fastballs away since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 0 Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (522/1,348) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (600/1,798) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Orioles are 60-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Orioles are 26-7 (.788) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Orioles are 13-66 (.165) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Yankees are 40-37 (.519) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 54-12 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are batting just .155 with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,461 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles hitters have drawn 276 walks in 3,730 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .971 (131 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .750 (3,701 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .694.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,381 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have an ERA of 5.82 (1283.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% against Yankees pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Christopher Ellis (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- John Means (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Wells (Orioles): Shoulder, D15
- Ramón Urías (Orioles): Knee, D10
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