- The Astros are -185 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Matthew Waldron
- Astros starting pitcher: Jonathan France
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+150) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-185) on Sunday, September 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Astros Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 0-0 ATS.
Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -120 | O 10 -110 | +150 |
| Astros | -1.5 +100 | U 10 -110 | -185 |
Padres vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+23.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 48 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+16.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+14.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+12.95 Units / 118% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Astros vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Astros vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.P. France | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Waldron | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 135 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 away games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.43 Units / 58% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 away games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 52% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+11.22 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 69 games (+7.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 107 games (+6.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 24th — Kenta Maeda has the longest active streak at 10.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (14/91) against Matt Waldron over the last 14 days (2 games) — 10th lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 26% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/138) against Matt Waldron over the last 30 days (3 games) — 13th lowest among among 238 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/138) against Matt Waldron over the last 30 days (3 games) — 4th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% — third Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .429 (21-for-49) against J.P. France over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (98/441) against J.P. France this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (10/73) against J.P. France with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
J.P. France has allowed an OBP of .472 (53 PA’s) against right-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are just 2-12 (.143) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 7-33 (.175) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are 131-15 (.897) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Astros are 87-19 (.821) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 36-14 (.720) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .609.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are just 2-12 (.143) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Padres hitters have drawn 146 walks in 1,502 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 613 strikeouts in 3,444 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 993 strikeouts in 5,525 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Astros hitters have just 292 strikeouts in 1,594 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (3,437 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.47 (679.0 IP) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
The Padres have allowed 3.77 runs per game (283/75) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.66.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (2722.2 IP) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (632.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.46.
Astros vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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