- The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Friday, September 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Padres vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 66-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 72-69 ATS.
Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Padres vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 60.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+22.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 50 games (+14.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+14.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 19 games at home (+11.65 Units / 52% ROI)
Astros vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Astros vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Astros vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yainer Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 134 games (+15.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 away games (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.19 Units / 52% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 away games (+4.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.30 Units / 50% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 86 games (+12.22 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+11.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 68 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 106 games (+7.40 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 68-73 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -5.45% ROI).
- 66-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -36 Units / -17.45% ROI
- 57-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.85 Units / -16.46% ROI
- 74-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.85 Units / 7.72% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 72-69 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.19% ROI).
- 80-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -1.01% ROI
- 74-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 1.81% ROI
- 64-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.2 Units / -10.57% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 89 of 646 batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 33% of batters they faced (212/646 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (1,609/2,770) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
22 of Blake Snell’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (80/421) against Hunter Brown since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (152/252) against Hunter Brown’s curve and slider since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.2 MPH on the 249 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 49% (52/106) against Hunter Brown on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are just 2-11 (.154) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 12-19 (.387) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Astros are 130-15 (.897) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Astros are 36-38 (.486) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .362.
The Astros are 80-61 (.567) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 146 walks in 1,502 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 312 walks in 3,369 PA’s (9%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .324 (5,837 PA’s) on the road since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 604 strikeouts in 3,405 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .584 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
Astros hitters have just 984 strikeouts in 5,486 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,414 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,264 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (1343.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 62%.
Astros vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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