- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 67-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 72-70 ATS.
Padres vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -105 | +110 |
| Astros | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -115 | -135 |
Padres vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+22.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 50 games (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+15.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+14.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+11.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.30 Units / 113% ROI)
Astros vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Astros vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Astros vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Astros vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
| Cristian Javier | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 135 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 away games (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.43 Units / 58% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 away games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 52% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+11.22 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 69 games (+7.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 107 games (+6.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 69-73 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -4.82% ROI).
- 67-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.8 Units / -16.79% ROI
- 58-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.85 Units / -15.71% ROI
- 74-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.8 Units / 6.99% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 72-70 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 0.62% ROI).
- 80-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -1.68% ROI
- 75-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 2.43% ROI
- 64-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.25 Units / -11.18% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (464/1,406) in non-two strike counts this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 95th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (633/1,513) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (724/2,160) in non-two strike counts since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 96th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .168 (80-for-476) against Cristian Javier since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (167/511) against Cristian Javier on low breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 14% (2/14) against Cristian Javier — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (105/400) against Cristian Javier this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Padres are just 2-11 (.154) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 14-26 (.350) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Padres are just 12-19 (.387) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are 156-10 (.940) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Astros are 87-19 (.821) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 80-62 (.563) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .324 (5,879 PA’s) on the road since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .406 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 992 strikeouts in 5,519 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 612 strikeouts in 3,438 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .184 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Astros hitters are slugging .597 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .432.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,414 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Padres have allowed 3.77 runs per game (283/75) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.66.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (1343.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Astros pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 62%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (632.1 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Astros vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Ryne Stanek (Astros): Ankle, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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