- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Athletics
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Athletics starting pitcher: Sean Newcomb
- Watch the game on NBCS-CA
The San Diego Padres (-200) visit Oakland Coliseum to take on the Oakland Athletics (+165) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Oakland.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Padres vs Athletics Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 69-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Athletics are 73-73 ATS.
Padres vs. Athletics Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -110 | -200 |
| Athletics | +1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -110 | +165 |
Padres vs Athletics Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 80.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Athletics and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Athletics and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+20.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 39 games (+10.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Athletics players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Athletics Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Seth Brown has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ryan Noda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+8.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ryan Noda has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 77% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+8.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Athletics vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Lawrence Butler | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Seth Brown | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Tony Kemp | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Jordan Diaz | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Athletics vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Lawrence Butler | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Seth Brown | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Tony Kemp | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Athletics vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Allen | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Lawrence Butler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Seth Brown | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tony Kemp | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
Athletics vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Sean Newcomb | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -135 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 140 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 away games (+9.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.73 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Athletics Best Bets Today:
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 85 games (+16.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 132 games (+14.53 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 86 games (+10.32 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 85 games (+8.05 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 71-76 against the Run Line (-10.95 Units / -6.08% ROI).
- 69-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -36.65 Units / -17.15% ROI
- 62-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.95 Units / -13.39% ROI
- 75-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 4.75% ROI
Athletics Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Athletics have gone 73-73 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 46-100 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.35 Units / -16.59% ROI
- 75-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 1.38% ROI
- 65-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.9 Units / -10.61% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (433/1,100) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (645/1,542) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 26% of the time (115/437) when he’s behind in the count this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 94th Percentile.
Athletics Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 21% (60/281) against Seth Lugo in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 23% (120/525) against Seth Lugo in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
7 of Seth Lugo’s 28 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) were backdoor in 2022 — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed an OBP of just .228 (114 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .306 — 90th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Athletics
The Padres are just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 6-120 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Padres are 20-22 (.476) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Athletics Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Athletics are just 4-7 (.364) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Athletics are just 83-60 (.580) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Athletics are just 26-72 (.265) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Athletics are just 31-63 (.330) after a home loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 854 walks in 8,407 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 440 walks in 4,059 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are averaging 3.96 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Athletics Hitting Stats & Trends
The Athletics are batting just .212 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Athletics are batting just .201 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Athletics hitters have an OBP of just .286 (5,469 PA’s) at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Athletics are batting just .212 against division opponents since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (3,572 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 282 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Athletics Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Athletics pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Athletics pitchers have an ERA of 6.12 (626.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
Athletics pitchers have an ERA of 5.52 (1279.2 IP) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Athletics pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Athletics vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Angel Felipe (Athletics): Elbow, D15
- Richard Lovelady (Athletics): Arm, D60
- James Kaprielian (Athletics): Shoulder, D60
- Austin Pruitt (Athletics): Forearm, D15
- Jeffrey Bleday (Athletics): Knee, D10
- Drew Rucinski (Athletics): Illness, D60
- Zachary Jackson (Athletics): Elbow, D60
- Yacksel Ríos (Athletics): Finger, D60
- Frederic Tarnok (Athletics): Calf, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Xander Bogaerts (Padres): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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