- The Padres are +100 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-120) on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 45-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 43-52 ATS.
Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 9 -120 | +100 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -190 | U 9 +100 | -120 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 52.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+15.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+15.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+13.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alejandro Kirk has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.45 Units / 49% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Blue Jays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+11.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 41 games (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 70 games (+17.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+7.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 47-48 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -3.72% ROI).
- 45-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -16.8% ROI
- 39-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.1 Units / -15.12% ROI
- 49-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 6.61% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 43-52 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -10.43% ROI).
- 53-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -4.56% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -10.24% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 1.58% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (9/78) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (12/112) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 166 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .214 (332 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .290 — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 50% of the time (160/318) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (48/151) against Jose Berrios on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .288 (21-for-73) against Jose Berrios’ elevated fastball this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 16th Percentile.
Jose Berrios has located his pitches away 58% of the time (269/461) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (28/83) against Jose Berrios on breaking pitches this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 27-42 (.391) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 7-43 (.140) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Padres are just 5-21 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Blue Jays are 6-2 (.750) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Blue Jays are 57-81 (.413) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Blue Jays are 4-33 (.108) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Blue Jays are 23-30 (.434) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 292 walks in 2,523 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are batting just .226 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have drawn 706 walks in 6,871 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .377 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters have 44 extra-base hits out of 163 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,296 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 7 of 36 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 711 of 9,652 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 21% of the time after an opposing score this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Side, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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