- The – are favorites vs the –
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres () visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays () on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Padres vs Blue Jays Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 46-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 43-53 ATS.
Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | O | ||
| Blue Jays | U |
Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 56.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Blue Jays and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+14.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+14.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.15 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 45 games (+14.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+11.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Blue Jays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 89 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games (+10.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 71 games (+18.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 48-48 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -2.82% ROI).
- 46-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -15.96% ROI
- 39-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -15.91% ROI
- 50-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.8 Units / 7.5% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 43-53 against the Run Line (-13.25 Units / -11.19% ROI).
- 53-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -5.37% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -11.09% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 2.5% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 29% of batters they faced (103/349 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .115 (22-for-192) against Blake Snell’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 59% (1,083/1,845) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 52 of 429 batters (12%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .291 SLG vs right-handed batters (best)– 100th Percentile and .558 vs left-handed batters this season (second worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of .558 (115 Total Bases / 206 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .411 — fourth Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OBP of just .260 (254 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 88th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has averaged 77.8 MPH on sliders since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Padres are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Padres are just 6-17 (.261) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Padres are just 5-11 (.312) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Blue Jays are 6-3 (.667) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Blue Jays are 57-82 (.410) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Blue Jays are 4-34 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Blue Jays are 6-31 (.162) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .293 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Padres hitters have drawn 296 walks in 2,561 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 92 walks in 853 PA’s (11%) when leading off an inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have 44 extra-base hits out of 163 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Blue Jays are batting .378 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Blue Jays are batting .368 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,296 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Padres have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Padres have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 715 of 9,692 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Side, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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