- The Blue Jays are -155 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Padres / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+135) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-160) on Wednesday, May 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Padres are 27-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 29-18 ATS.
Padres vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 3-3, 3.48 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 3-4, 4.65 ERA
Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elias Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+12.40 Units / 207% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Randy Vasquez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+14.40 Units / 160% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 68% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+4.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 44 games (+3.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.64 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 26-20 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 5.34% ROI).
- 27-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 3.31% ROI
- 19-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -18.29% ROI
- 26-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 8.81% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 29-18 against the Run Line (+8.95 Units / 13.5% ROI).
- 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.56 Units / -2.87% ROI
- 22-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -7.88% ROI
- 24-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.1% ROI
Blue Jays vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Blue Jays vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Blue Jays vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Randy Vasquez has struck out just 9% (33/376) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Randy Vasquez struck out just 8% (16/198) of left-handed batters he faced in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 14% (3/21) against Randy Vasquez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Randy Vasquez has a strikeout rate of just 28% (85 SO in 300 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 37% (77/208) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .310 (9-for-29) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .156 — third Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strike rate of 68% (283/416) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .124 (52-for-420) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes in 2023 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 95th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Padres were 55-38 (.591) after a win in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 145-22 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are 73-47 (.608) after a win since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres were 11-59 (.157) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Blue Jays are just 18-3 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Blue Jays are just 14-4 (.778) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Blue Jays are 30-18 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Blue Jays were just 4-74 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of it’s PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .235 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .373 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters had an OPS of just .653 (1,419 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Padres pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Blue Jays pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
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