- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on BSSE
The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Thursday, April 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Padres vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 3-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 5-1 ATS.
Padres vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -145 | O 8 +100 | +140 |
| Braves | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -120 | -165 |
Padres vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
Braves vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ozzie Albies | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Braves vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Ozzie Albies | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Braves vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ozzie Albies | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Spencer Strider | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +100 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 away games (+4.30 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 61 games at home (+20.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 76 games at home (+19.42 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 71 games at home (+19.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 2-4 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -32.26% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -23.61% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 26.09% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -33.86% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 5-1 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 51.19% ROI).
- 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 35.5% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -36.92% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.7 Units / 25.37% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has a strikeout rate of 43% (9 SO in 21 PAs) this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 50% (8/16) against Blake Snell this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (20/46) against Blake Snell this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season (129 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 80.4
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider struck out 44% (111/251) of right-handed batters he faced in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 41% (69/168) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 47% (28 SO in 59 PAs) in late innings since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (2/11) against Spencer Strider this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Padres were 19-19 (.500) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2022 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Padres are 141-11 (.928) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Padres were 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Padres were just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Braves are 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging .422 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Padres hitters have put 50% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres hitters have put 47% of their swings in play against starting pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .222 (73 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .445 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Braves hitters are slugging .514 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s in 2022 (430/6,082) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters are slugging .480 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 16 of 229 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 3 of 54 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 9% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 8% versus the bottom of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) in 2022 (; League Avg: 117.3).
Braves vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Left Hamstring, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
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