- The Brewers are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff
- Watch the game on BSWI
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-120) on Friday, August 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Padres vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 61-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 58-69 ATS.
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 42 games (+22.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 43 games (+20.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+18.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 40 games (+18.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+16.15 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 42 games (+9.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 121 games (+17.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 118 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.56 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 away games (+4.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 38 away games (+3.80 Units / 9% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+7.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 105 games (+7.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 108% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 62-66 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 61-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.8 Units / -16.79% ROI
- 50-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.2 Units / -19.08% ROI
- 69-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.5 Units / 10.4% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 58-69 against the Run Line (-15.2 Units / -9.61% ROI).
- 70-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 3.91% ROI
- 55-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.35 Units / -13.12% ROI
- 66-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.75 Units / 4.18% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .469 (30-for-64) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .342 — third Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .268 (11 Total Bases / 41 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 92nd Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 49% of the time (223/453) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of .636 (35 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .406 — fifth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Woodruff has struck out 34% (120/351) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 50% (130/258) against Brandon Woodruff on changeups since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of 36% (259/714) against Brandon Woodruff since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .048 (1-for-21) against Brandon Woodruff with two-strikes — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .171 — 97th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 12-58 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Padres are 49-9 (.845) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 15-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Brewers are 76-56 (.576) after a loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Brewers are 31-9 (.775) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
The Brewers are 34-23 (.596) after a loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 386 walks in 3,463 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .214 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have drawn 131 walks in 1,381 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .358 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Brewers are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .232 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 39% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres have allowed 4.02 runs per game (514/128) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.60.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Salvatore Frelick (Brewers): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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