- The Brewers are -140 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Pedro Avila
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-140) on Saturday, August 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 61-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 59-69 ATS.
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -115 | +115 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -105 | -140 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 43 games (+21.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 44 games (+18.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 45 games (+17.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 41 games (+17.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+16.15 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 43 games (+12.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+10.15 Units / 169% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+9.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.15 Units / 88% ROI)
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Avila | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Freddy Peralta | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 122 games (+16.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 119 games (+14.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.61 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 away games (+3.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.40 Units / 5% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 105% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.24 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.14 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 62-67 against the Run Line (-10.6 Units / -6.75% ROI).
- 61-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.85 Units / -17.24% ROI
- 51-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.2 Units / -18.23% ROI
- 69-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.45 Units / 9.58% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 59-69 against the Run Line (-13.45 Units / -8.45% ROI).
- 71-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 4.51% ROI
- 56-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -12.31% ROI
- 66-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.7 Units / 3.39% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 70% of Pedro Avila’s pitches (23/33) with two-strikes — tied for 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 37% (22/59) against Pedro Avila over the last 14 days (3 games) — 9th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 29% — 91st Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Pedro Avila’s pitches (68/121) over the last 14 days (3 games) — 4th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 47% — 96th Percentile.
Pedro Avila has 5 three-pitch strikeouts over the last 30 days (5 games) — tied for 3rd most among in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .208 (11-for-53) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .160 (21-for-131) against Freddy Peralta’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (373/1,084) against Freddy Peralta this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 52% (168 SO in 323 PAs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 91st Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Padres are just 3-54 (.053) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Padres are just 4-51 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Padres are just 11-105 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .131.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 15-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Brewers are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 20-15 (.571) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .215 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have drawn 389 walks in 3,494 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .384 at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have just 10 strikeouts in 108 PA’s (9%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .233 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Brewers hitters have 722 strikeouts in 2,861 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,063 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Padres have allowed 3.79 runs per game (258/68) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.61.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Salvatore Frelick (Brewers): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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