- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Brewers
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Watch the game on BSWI
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-105) on Sunday, August 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Padres vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 61-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 59-70 ATS.
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+20.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 45 games (+16.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+16.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 42 games (+16.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+13.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+10.30 Units / 91% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.15 Units / 131% ROI)
Brewers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Brewers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Brewers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
| Adrian Houser | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 67 of their last 123 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 120 games (+13.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.61 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 48 games (+2.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 away games (+2.30 Units / 5% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in their last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.29 Units / 78% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in their last 7 games (+7.14 Units / 86% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 63-67 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -6.05% ROI).
- 61-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -33.85 Units / -17.68% ROI
- 52-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.2 Units / -17.4% ROI
- 69-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.35 Units / 8.72% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 59-70 against the Run Line (-14.45 Units / -9.02% ROI).
- 72-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 5.09% ROI
- 57-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.35 Units / -11.51% ROI
- 66-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 2.58% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .098 (5 GB hits out of 51 GBs) against Michael Wacha with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (14-for-90) against Michael Wacha when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .198 (37-for-187) against Michael Wacha this season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 96th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (225/483) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (7/66) against Adrian Houser with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (566/760) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,056/1,495) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 99th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (657/962) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .436.
The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 52-29 (.642) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Padres are just 6-12 (.333) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 15-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Brewers are 18-9 (.667) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Brewers are 76-56 (.576) after a loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Brewers are 30-17 (.638) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .398 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
Padres hitters have drawn 807 walks in 7,878 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have just 10 strikeouts in 112 PA’s (9%) against LHP over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .358 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Brewers hitters have 722 strikeouts in 2,865 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Padres pitchers have walked 4 of 114 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, Day-to-Day
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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