- The Brewers (33-21) are -135 favorites vs the Padres (31-21)
- Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (3-1), 1.71 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (1-3), 2.70 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-135) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 31-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 24-30 ATS.
Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | O 7 +105 | +110 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -125 | -135 |
Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+8.35 Units / 70% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 76% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Yelich has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+6.15 Units / 123% ROI)
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 19 games at home (+5.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1H Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 away games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1H Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1H Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 28-24 against the Run Line (+2.6 Units / 3.82% ROI).
- 31-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 9.65% ROI
- 22-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -14.13% ROI
- 28-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 6.89% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 24-30 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -10.69% ROI).
- 33-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 2.54% ROI
- 25-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -5.54% ROI
- 26-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.85% ROI
MacKenzie Gore: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against MacKenzie Gore with two-strikes in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .178 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against MacKenzie Gore in his last two starts — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .249 — 96th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (7 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: .372 — 96th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .255 (38 Total Bases / 149 ABs) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: .392 — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 72% (60/83) against Aaron Ashby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (65/99) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (17/24) against Aaron Ashby in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (10/83) against Aaron Ashby this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Padres are 4-14 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Padres are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Padres are 13-3 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Brewers are 14-1 (.933) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .680.
The Brewers are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Brewers are just 3-11 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Brewers are 16-3 (.842) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .340 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Padres hitters are slugging just .338 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
The Padres are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
Padres hitters are slugging .232 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging .420 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .226 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .136 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Willy Adames (Brewers): Ankle, D10
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Omar Narváez (Brewers): COVID-19, D10
- Luis Urías (Brewers): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
- Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Michael Clevinger (Padres): Triceps, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
- Michel Baez (Padres): Elbow, D60
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