Padres vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2022, 2:03 PM
  • The Brewers (33-21) are -135 favorites vs the Padres (31-21)
  • Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (3-1), 1.71 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (1-3), 2.70 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-135) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Padres vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 31-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 24-30 ATS.

Padres vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -190O 7 +105+110
Brewers -1.5 +155U 7 -125-135

Padres vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+8.35 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 76% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+6.15 Units / 123% ROI)
  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 19 games at home (+5.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1H Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 away games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 50 games (+6.15 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1H Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1H Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 28-24 against the Run Line (+2.6 Units / 3.82% ROI).

  • 31-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 9.65% ROI
  • 22-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -8 Units / -14.13% ROI
  • 28-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 6.89% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 24-30 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -10.69% ROI).

  • 33-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 2.54% ROI
  • 25-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -5.54% ROI
  • 26-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.85% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .045 (1-for-22) against MacKenzie Gore with two-strikes in his last two starts — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .178 — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against MacKenzie Gore in his last two starts — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .249 — 96th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (7 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: .372 — 96th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .255 (38 Total Bases / 149 ABs) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: .392 — 97th Percentile.

Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 72% (60/83) against Aaron Ashby this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (65/99) against Aaron Ashby this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 71% (17/24) against Aaron Ashby in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (10/83) against Aaron Ashby this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Padres are 4-14 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.

The Padres are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Padres are 13-3 (.812) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Brewers are 14-1 (.933) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .680.

The Brewers are 4-17 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.

The Brewers are just 3-11 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.

The Brewers are 16-3 (.842) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

 

Padres hitters are slugging just .340 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Padres hitters are slugging just .338 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Padres are batting .186 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

Padres hitters are slugging .232 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .209.

Brewers hitters are slugging .420 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .226 at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .136 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.

The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Padres have won 55% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have won 57% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Brewers pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Willy Adames (Brewers): Ankle, D10
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Omar Narváez (Brewers): COVID-19, D10
  • Luis Urías (Brewers): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • Dustin Renfroe (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D15
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Clevinger (Padres): Triceps, D15
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
  • Michel Baez (Padres): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.