- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Zachary Thompson
- Watch the game on BSMW
The San Diego Padres (-150) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+125) on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Padres vs Cardinals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 62-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 62-70 ATS.
Padres vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | O 9 -115 | -150 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -130 | U 9 -105 | +125 |
Padres vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 68.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Cardinals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+19.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 44 games (+18.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.70 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+13.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)
Cardinals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Taylor Motter | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cardinals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Taylor Motter | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cardinals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Taylor Motter | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Zack Thompson | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 125 games (+15.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 122 games (+13.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.61 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 away games (+3.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 62 games (+2.55 Units / 3% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 64-68 against the Run Line (-9.6 Units / -5.96% ROI).
- 62-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -34 Units / -17.47% ROI
- 53-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.25 Units / -17.19% ROI
- 70-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.2 Units / 8.48% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 62-70 against the Run Line (-13.45 Units / -8.01% ROI).
- 56-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -37.6 Units / -21.94% ROI
- 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.3 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.03% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has pitched 12.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 23.1.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (396/978) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (608/1,420) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3226.8 RPM on curveballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 2529.3 — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of .643 (18 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .338 — third Percentile.
Zack Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of .643 (18 Total Bases / 28 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .347 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .433 (26-for-60) against Zack Thompson in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .330 — second Percentile.
Zack Thompson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (66/118) of opposing batters this season — 13th lowest among among 205 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Padres are just 2-9 (.182) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 4-53 (.070) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cardinals are 27-9 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 2-57 (.034) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Cardinals are just 9-17 (.346) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Cardinals are just 51-62 (.451) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 403 walks in 3,612 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cardinals hitters have 358 extra-base hits out of 876 total hits (41%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .324 (8,602 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,182 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.85 (1169.2 IP) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
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