- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Padres vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Cardinals TV Channel: FDMW | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-130) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+110) on Friday, July 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Padres are 55-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 55-49 ATS.
Padres vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 10-2, 2.82 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 5-7, 5.17 ERA
Padres vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -110 | -130 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -110 | +110 |
Padres vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Nick Pivetta has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ivan Herrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+13.70 Units / 137% ROI)
- Ivan Herrera has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 61 games (+20.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+13.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+13.22 Units / 24% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+9.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games at home (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 55-48 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 2.25% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 0.34% ROI
- 42-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.5 Units / -19.01% ROI
- 58-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.7 Units / 10.29% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 55-49 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 0.62% ROI).
- 53-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -1.13% ROI
- 54-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 4.85% ROI
- 44-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.35 Units / -13.43% ROI
Cardinals vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Cardinals vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Iglesias (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Cardinals vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Cardinals vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (SD) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -175 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated sliders35% of the time (123/352) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (34/111) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .133 (15-for-113) against Nick Pivetta’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .210 — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (48/146) against Nick Pivetta this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — seventh Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 14% (74/529) against Miles Mikolas in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 15% (110/720) against Miles Mikolas in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents batted .225 (89-for-396) against Miles Mikolas with two-strikes in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .223 (78-for-350) against Miles Mikolas with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — third Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Padres are 9-36 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .121.
The Padres are 101-10 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .865.
The Padres are 22-91 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Padres are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cardinals are just 12-42 (.222) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cardinals are 108-6 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Cardinals are 120-3 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Cardinals are 44-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres batted .275 on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cardinals are batting .228 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .938 (782 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.067.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .224 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Cardinals are batting .166 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 15% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 55% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 46% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 39% of the time over the last 14 days — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%. over the last 14 days — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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