- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Cubs
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-110) on Wednesday, April 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 12-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 14-8 ATS.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 +100 | -110 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -120 | -110 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+17.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+14.40 Units / 101% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+11.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Eric Hosmer has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 60% ROI)
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+1.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+8.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 12-13 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -12.08% ROI).
- 12-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -15.15% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -12.68% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 3.87% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 14-8 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 23.8% ROI).
- 13-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 22.79% ROI
- 12-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 3.29% ROI
- 10-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -13.64% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of .950 (19 Total Bases / 20 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .441 — first Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (53/108) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (121/663) against Michael Wacha since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of 1.426 (21 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .768 — second Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (93/155) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 36% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters batted just .000 (0-for-16) against Drew Smyly — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .215 — 100th Percentile..
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 54% of the time (54/101) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 60% of the time (62/103) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Padres are 36-12 (.750) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Padres are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Padres are 82-8 (.911) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 37-21 (.638) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .810.
The Cubs are just 78-5 (.940) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Cubs are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Cubs are just 7-70 (.091) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .206 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Padres are batting just .214 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters are averaging 4.15 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .584 (287 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .381 (345 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Cubs are batting .309 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .881 (345 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Cubs hitters are slugging .364 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 27 of 222 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 17 of 115 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 98 of 957 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .188 against Cubs pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Jameson Taillon (Cubs): Groin, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
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