Padres vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 16, 2022, 11:04 AM
  • The Padres (40-24) are -185 favorites vs the Cubs (23-39)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (7-0), 1.50 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Swarmer (1-1), 4.23 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The San Diego Padres (-185) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+150) on Thursday, June 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 40-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 31-31 ATS.

Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 -120O 11 -110-185
Cubs +1.5 +100U 11 -110+150

Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+7.55 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+6.45 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.45 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.25 Units / 44% ROI)

Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Ian Happ 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Jason Heyward 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jonathan Villar 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Ian Happ 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jason Heyward 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Jonathan Villar 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Ian Happ 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jason Heyward 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jonathan Villar 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Matt Swarmer 3.5 -115 3.5 -125
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -160 5.5 +115
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 63 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 29 games (+4.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 36-28 against the Run Line (+8.3 Units / 10.07% ROI).

  • 40-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.7 Units / 12.17% ROI
  • 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -9.25% ROI
  • 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.75% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 31-31 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -6.59% ROI).

  • 23-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -22.93% ROI
  • 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -1.09% ROI
  • 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -7.27% ROI

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of just .214 (126 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .160 (4-for-25) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has walked 3 of 127 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 96th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of just .173 (52 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — 97th Percentile.

Matthew Swarmer: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matt Swarmer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 30th — the longest active streak is 6.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (17/33) against Matt Swarmer — 14th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — ninth Percentile.

The hardest ball hit off of Matt Swarmer was 119.8 MPH — hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.6

Opponents batting in the heart of the order are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Matt Swarmer — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Padres are 5-17 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Padres are 32-8 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Padres are 23-11 (.676) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Padres are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Cubs are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Cubs are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The Cubs are just 11-23 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.

The Cubs are just 6-29 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Padres have a winning percentage of 68% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,232 of their 3,675 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 263 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs have won just 46% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .371 (56 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .660.

The Cubs have scored 54 runs in innings 7-9 this season — fewest in MLB.

The Padres have won 64% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .181 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .143 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

The Cubs have won just 10% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): COVID-19, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
  • Michael Clevinger (Padres): COVID-19, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.