- The Padres (40-24) are -185 favorites vs the Cubs (23-39)
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (7-0), 1.50 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Matthew Swarmer (1-1), 4.23 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The San Diego Padres (-185) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+150) on Thursday, June 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 40-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 31-31 ATS.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -120 | O 11 -110 | -185 |
| Cubs | +1.5 +100 | U 11 -110 | +150 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 60.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+7.55 Units / 73% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+6.45 Units / 72% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 away games (+6.10 Units / 83% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 66% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.25 Units / 44% ROI)
Cubs vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jonathan Villar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Cubs vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jonathan Villar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan Villar | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Swarmer | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -125 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 63 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 29 games (+4.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 36-28 against the Run Line (+8.3 Units / 10.07% ROI).
- 40-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.7 Units / 12.17% ROI
- 29-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -9.25% ROI
- 33-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.75% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 31-31 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -6.59% ROI).
- 23-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -22.93% ROI
- 31-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -1.09% ROI
- 29-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -7.27% ROI
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of just .214 (126 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .160 (4-for-25) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .323 — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has walked 3 of 127 right-handed batters (2%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 96th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of just .173 (52 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — 97th Percentile.
Matthew Swarmer: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Swarmer has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 30th — the longest active streak is 6.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (17/33) against Matt Swarmer — 14th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — ninth Percentile.
The hardest ball hit off of Matt Swarmer was 119.8 MPH — hardest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 109.6
Opponents batting in the heart of the order are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Matt Swarmer — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .242 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 5-17 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Padres are 32-8 (.800) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Padres are 23-11 (.676) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Padres are 11-3 (.786) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 0-30 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Cubs are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Cubs are just 11-23 (.324) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Cubs are just 6-29 (.171) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have a winning percentage of 68% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,232 of their 3,675 plate appearances (34%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 36 double plays in 263 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won just 46% of games in which they have scored first at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .371 (56 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .660.
The Cubs have scored 54 runs in innings 7-9 this season — fewest in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 64% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .181 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .143 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 10% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Undisclosed, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): COVID-19, D10
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D10
- Michael Clevinger (Padres): COVID-19, D10
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