- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Julio Teheran, 6.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele, 5.78 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Mesa.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 7-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 8-7 ATS.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 10.5 -120 | +120 |
Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 10.5 +100 | -145 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -4.47% ROI).
- 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -21.46% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -3.7% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -2.97% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 8-7 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 4.11% ROI).
- 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 4.63% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -45.56% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 37.18% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (52/100) against Justin Steele on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,513/2,136) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 34% (26/77) versus Justin Steele with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Justin Steele threw fastballs 71% of the time (1,018/1,433) in non-two strike counts last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Cubs hitters put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters have 3,044 strikeouts in 12,044 PA’s (25%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) last season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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