- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Julio Teheran, 6.00 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele, 5.78 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Mesa.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Padres vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 7-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 8-7 ATS.
Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | O 10.5 -120 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 10.5 +100 | -145 |
Padres vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 85 games (+19.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+16.35 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -4.47% ROI).
- 7-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.55 Units / -21.46% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -3.7% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -2.97% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 8-7 against the Run Line (+0.8 Units / 4.11% ROI).
- 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 4.63% ROI
- 4-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -45.56% ROI
- 11-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 37.18% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (52/100) against Justin Steele on elevated fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,513/2,136) in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 34% (26/77) versus Justin Steele with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Justin Steele threw fastballs 71% of the time (1,018/1,433) in non-two strike counts last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 99th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Cubs hitters put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cubs hitters have 3,044 strikeouts in 12,044 PA’s (25%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.8 MPH) last season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,137 of 12,365 batters (9%) since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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