- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) on Friday, April 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 10-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 13-7 ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -120 | -115 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | U 9.5 +100 | -105 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+18.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.10 Units / 72% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+11.40 Units / 94% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.30 Units / 85% ROI)
- Pavin Smith has hit the RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+9.00 Units / 180% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 49% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+2.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 97% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 10-11 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -10.89% ROI).
- 10-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -17.29% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -9.25% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.22% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 13-7 against the Run Line (+5.05 Units / 18.43% ROI).
- 11-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 29.43% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.2 Units / 9.93% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -17.77% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (71/346) against Seth Lugo since last season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — sixth Percentile.
8 of Seth Lugo’s 35 breaking pitch strikeouts (23%) have been backdoor since last season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 93rd Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (83/201) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .272 (49-for-180) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 14th highest among among 104 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .229 — 14th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .067 (30 PA’s) with two-strikes — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .248 — 97th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 17 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .147 (51-for-347) against Zac Gallen since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .217 (378 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 71 total IP; League Avg: .304 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 19-21 (.475) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Padres are 49-39 (.557) on the road since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Padres are 82-29 (.739) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 65-12 (.844) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 109-23 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .258 (90 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Padres are batting just .223 on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres hitters have just 793 strikeouts in 3,812 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres are batting just .229 at home since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .666 (1,942 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 26 walks in 477 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,942 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .299 (825 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 21 of 125 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 63 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Padres pitchers have walked 24 of 188 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Jose Herrera (Diamondbacks): Head, Day-to-Day
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
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