Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 12

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(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 12, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Diamondbacks are -145 favorites vs the Padres
  • Padres starting pitcher: Richard Hill
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
  • Watch the game on ARID

The San Diego Padres (+120) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Padres are 56-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 62-54 ATS.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -165O 9 -115+120
Diamondbacks -1.5 +135U 9 -105-145

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 31 games (+20.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+17.05 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+15.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+14.65 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.55 Units / 23% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+16.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+14.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+14.35 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+14.10 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Walker 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Carson Kelly 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ji-man Choi 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Tommy Pham 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Walker 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Carson Kelly 0.5 -155 0.5 +115
Ji-man Choi 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Tommy Pham 0.5 -250 0.5 +190

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Walker 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Carson Kelly 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Ji-man Choi 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Tommy Pham 0.5 +145 0.5 -190

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rich Hill 3.5 -105 3.5 -125
Zac Gallen 5.5 -145 5.5 +110
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 109 games (+12.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 away games (+10.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games (+5.55 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+14.40 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.60 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+10.24 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 113 games (+2.45 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.74 Units / 7% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 57-59 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -5.23% ROI).

  • 56-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.35 Units / -16.39% ROI
  • 47-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.15 Units / -16.4% ROI
  • 61-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.65 Units / 7.63% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 62-54 against the Run Line (+0.95 Units / 0.64% ROI).

  • 57-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.46% ROI
  • 49-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.2 Units / -14.77% ROI
  • 61-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.35 Units / 6.66% ROI

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (958/2,123) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.

39 of Rich Hill’s 126 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (607/1,512) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 97th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (705/1,512) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .444 (32-for-72) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — fifth Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .192 (317 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 92nd Percentile.

Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .380 (317 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .501 — 95th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 36% (78/219) against Zac Gallen this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 13th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are just 1-5 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.

The Padres are just 6-105 (.054) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 112-12 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.

The Diamondbacks are just 100-19 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Diamondbacks are just 28-14 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Diamondbacks are just 12-18 (.400) after a home loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.

Padres hitters are slugging just .385 at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Padres hitters have just 26 strikeouts in 166 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have drawn 253 walks in 2,513 PA’s (10%) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Diamondbacks hitters have just 655 strikeouts in 3,218 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .473 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .316 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Padres have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Padres have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Gabriel Moreno (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D10
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Evan Longoria (Diamondbacks): Back, D10
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
  • Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D15
  • Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
  • David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.