Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 28

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (45-30) are -110 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (33-41)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (3-3), 3.87 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (4-2), 2.78 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 45-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 41-33 ATS.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +150O 7.5 -110-110
Diamondbacks +1.5 -185U 7.5 -110-110

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 10 away games (+10.45 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.30 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 away games (+7.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.35 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+13.25 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.20 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.40 Units / 32% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Buddy Kennedy 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Carson Kelly 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Christian Walker 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Buddy Kennedy 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Carson Kelly 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Christian Walker 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Buddy Kennedy 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Carson Kelly 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Christian Walker 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zac Gallen 5.5 -115 5.5 -120
Sean Manaea 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 37 away games (+16.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 away games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 50 games (+6.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+0.95 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+9.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+7.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+7.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 63 games (+0.40 Units / 1% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 40-35 against the Run Line (+5.9 Units / 6.25% ROI).

  • 45-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 6.97% ROI
  • 33-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -12.86% ROI
  • 40-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.7 Units / 4.44% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 41-33 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 4.82% ROI).

  • 33-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.5 Units / -4.3% ROI
  • 32-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -14.06% ROI
  • 40-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 5.1% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Zachary Gallen: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 24-14 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

The Padres are 37-9 (.804) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 20-5 (.800) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .721.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 82-21 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-27 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 90-14 (.865) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Diamondbacks are just 32-37 (.464) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Padres are batting just .225 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Padres are batting .244 with two outs since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .232.

Padres hitters are slugging .590 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.

The Padres are batting .330 on the road over the last 14 days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .188 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .166 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .187 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .184 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.

The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .162 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.1

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Trenton Grisham (Padres): Shoulder, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.