- The Padres (78-65) are -160 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (67-75)
- Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (7-8), 5.23 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Drey Jameson (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (-160) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) on Thursday, September 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 76-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 81-58 ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | O 9 -110 | -160 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -110 | +135 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Thursday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 42 of his last 54 away games (+21.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 32 away games (+19.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 40 away games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+15.55 Units / 61% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 63 games at home (+15.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+12.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 49 games at home (+10.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 48% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+9.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 away games (+3.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 away games (+1.65 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 64 games (+33.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 61-78 against the Run Line (-22.7 Units / -13.18% ROI).
- 76-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 68-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -3.85% ROI
- 68-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -4.37% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 81-58 against the Run Line (+19.7 Units / 11.06% ROI).
- 66-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 0.7% ROI
- 63-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -9.81% ROI
- 71-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 0.39% ROI
Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (1,600/3,948) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .292 (70-for-240) against Sean Manaea’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .227 — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 84.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (148 balls in play) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Opponents are hitting .451 (37-for-82) against Sean Manaea when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: .334 — second Percentile.
Drey Jameson: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Padres are just 3-51 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .883.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 117-21 (.848) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 106-33 (.763) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-32 (.256) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 49-14 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .535 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Padres hitters are slugging just .380 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters have 113 extra-base hits out of 365 total hits (just 31%) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .217 with two outs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 15%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers this month (11 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have walked 78 of 1,276 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
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