- The Padres (78-66) are -175 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (68-75)
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (6-9), 4.01 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-14), 4.87 ERA
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The San Diego Padres (-175) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+145) on Friday, September 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | -175 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | +145 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Friday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 43 of his last 55 away games (+22.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 33 away games (+21.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 33 of his last 41 away games (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+16.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 64 games at home (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+13.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 games at home (+11.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 48% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Bumgarner | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +125 |
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 27 away games (+2.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+1.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+0.10 Units / 0% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 65 games (+34.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+12.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 96 of 786 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 21 of 113 batters (19%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 44 of 259 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 114 of 994 batters (12%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
33 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
64 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
64 of Madison Bumgarner’s 152 breaking pitch strikeouts (42%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 151 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
33 of Madison Bumgarner’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (48%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 63-21 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 107-33 (.764) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 118-21 (.849) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 50-14 (.781) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
The Diamondbacks are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .314 against RHP this month (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Padres are batting just .147 with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .325 (2,974 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers this month (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have walked 78 of 1,284 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The longest HR allowed by the Diamondbacks pitchers this season traveled 503.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 462.9
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
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