- The Padres (80-66) are -150 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (68-77)
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (14-7), 3.15 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson (1-0), 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (-150) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) on Sunday, September 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are ATS.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | -150 |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | +125 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 44 of his last 56 away games (+23.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 34 away games (+22.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+16.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+13.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 66 games at home (+12.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 52 games at home (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.15 Units / 68% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alek Thomas | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+4.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 away games (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+2.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 67 games (+32.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .245 (63 Total Bases / 257 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (15-for-153) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .174 (207 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .107 (16-for-149) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 12 innings — the longest active streak is 14.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OPS of just .392 (47 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .675 — 100th Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has pitched 13.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Alex Vesia has the longest active streak at 19.2.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Ryne Nelson — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 65-21 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 28-8 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Padres are 42-35 (.545) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Padres are 63-6 (.913) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 107-33 (.764) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 118-21 (.849) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-32 (.256) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 32-176 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Padres hitters are slugging .229 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,593 of their 4,903 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have drawn 320 walks in 3,385 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .295 (654 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .217 (199 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers this month (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have walked 78 of 1,302 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers have walked 6 of 202 batters (3%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Diamondbacks pitchers this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
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