Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (80-66) are -150 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (68-77)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (14-7), 3.15 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson (1-0), 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (-150) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) on Sunday, September 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Padres vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are ATS.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres-1.5 +110O 8 -105-150
Diamondbacks +1.5 -135U 8 -115+125

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Padres and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 44 of his last 56 away games (+23.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 34 away games (+22.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+16.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+13.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 66 games at home (+12.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 52 games at home (+11.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+11.15 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.55 Units / 45% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Christian Walker 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +1100 0.5

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Christian Walker 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Christian Walker 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Corbin Carroll 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 6.5 -110 6.5 -130
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+4.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 away games (+3.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 away games (+2.10 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 67 games (+32.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

  • home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
  • home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
  • home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .245 (63 Total Bases / 257 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .098 (15-for-153) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .221 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .174 (207 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .107 (16-for-149) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 152 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.

Ryne Nelson: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ryne Nelson has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 12 innings — the longest active streak is 14.

Ryne Nelson has allowed an OPS of just .392 (47 PA’s) — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .675 — 100th Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has pitched 13.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Alex Vesia has the longest active streak at 19.2.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (4/17) against Ryne Nelson — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 65-21 (.756) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 28-8 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Padres are 42-35 (.545) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Padres are 63-6 (.913) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 107-33 (.764) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 118-21 (.849) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are just 11-32 (.256) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 32-176 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Padres hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters are slugging .229 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,593 of their 4,903 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have drawn 320 walks in 3,385 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .295 (654 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .217 (199 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .305.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Padres pitchers this month (14 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres pitchers have walked 78 of 1,302 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Padres pitchers have walked 6 of 202 batters (3%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Diamondbacks pitchers this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.