Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Dodgers (49-28) are -200 favorites vs the Padres (46-34)
  • Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (4-3), 3.33 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw (5-2), 2.93 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The San Diego Padres (+165) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 46-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 45-32 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -120O 8 -110+165
Dodgers -1.5 +100U 8 -110-200

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.05 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Justin Turner 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Max Muncy 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Mookie Betts 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Trayce Thompson 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Freddie Freeman 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Justin Turner 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Max Muncy 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Mookie Betts 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Trayce Thompson 0.5 -140 0.5 -105

Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Justin Turner 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Max Muncy 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Mookie Betts 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Trayce Thompson 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Clayton Kershaw 5.5 -125 5.5 -110
Mackenzie Gore 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 away games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 77 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 41-39 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.33% ROI).

  • 46-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 3.79% ROI
  • 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -13.44% ROI
  • 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 5.06% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 45-32 against the Run Line (+10.5 Units / 11.51% ROI).

  • 49-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -5.29% ROI
  • 30-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.15 Units / -17.9% ROI
  • 41-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.7 Units / 9.06% ROI

MacKenzie Gore has allowed at least 3 walks in each of his last five games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .121 (7 Total Bases / 58 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .103 (6-for-58) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .143 (7 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .358 — 96th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (93/234) against Clayton Kershaw when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 67% of the time (357/530) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (159/445) against Clayton Kershaw since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 65% of the time (438/673) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are 21-16 (.568) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Padres are 25-18 (.581) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Padres are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 44-3 (.936) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .922.

The Dodgers are 46-11 (.807) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Dodgers are 19-6 (.760) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Dodgers are 23-12 (.657) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

Padres hitters are slugging just .348 at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Padres hitters are slugging just .383 at home since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,293 of their 3,889 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .333 (6,510 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Dodgers hitters have 37 extra-base hits out of 70 total hits (53%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.4

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .159 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Dodgers pitchers have walked 196 of 2,791 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Dodgers have have still managed to win 43% of the time since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Edwin Ríos (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Taylor (Dodgers): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Zachary McKinstry (Dodgers): Neck, D10
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Heaney (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Dustin May (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Caleb Ferguson (Dodgers): Undisclosed, D15
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.