- The Dodgers (49-28) are -200 favorites vs the Padres (46-34)
- Padres starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore (4-3), 3.33 ERA
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw (5-2), 2.93 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+165) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) on Sunday, July 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 46-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 45-32 ATS.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -110 | +165 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -110 | -200 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.50 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+7.05 Units / 88% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+6.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Mookie Betts | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Mookie Betts | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Justin Turner | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mookie Betts | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Trayce Thompson | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 away games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Dodgers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games (+12.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 77 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 73 games (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 41-39 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 1.33% ROI).
- 46-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.75 Units / -13.44% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.5 Units / 5.06% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 45-32 against the Run Line (+10.5 Units / 11.51% ROI).
- 49-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -5.29% ROI
- 30-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.15 Units / -17.9% ROI
- 41-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.7 Units / 9.06% ROI
MacKenzie Gore: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has allowed at least 3 walks in each of his last five games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .121 (7 Total Bases / 58 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (6-for-58) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .143 (7 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: .358 — 96th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 40% (93/234) against Clayton Kershaw when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 67% of the time (357/530) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (159/445) against Clayton Kershaw since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has thrown his slider 65% of the time (438/673) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total SL; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are 21-16 (.568) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Padres are 25-18 (.581) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 1-24 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .078.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 44-3 (.936) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .922.
The Dodgers are 46-11 (.807) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Dodgers are 19-6 (.760) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Dodgers are 23-12 (.657) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .348 at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 at home since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,293 of their 3,889 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .333 (6,510 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Dodgers hitters have 37 extra-base hits out of 70 total hits (53%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.4
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .159 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 196 of 2,791 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Dodgers have have still managed to win 43% of the time since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Edwin Ríos (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
- Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Taylor (Dodgers): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Zachary McKinstry (Dodgers): Neck, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Heaney (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
- Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Caleb Ferguson (Dodgers): Undisclosed, D15
- Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
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