Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Dodgers (46-28) are -135 favorites vs the Padres (46-31)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-1), 2.11 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Mitchell White (1-1), 4.24 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The San Diego Padres (+115) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 46-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 42-32 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -185O 7.5 -105+115
Dodgers -1.5 +150U 7.5 -115-135

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 61.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+10.70 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Trent Grisham has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+8.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Gavin Lux has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Chris Taylor has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 50% ROI)

Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Gavin Lux 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Lamb 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Cody Bellinger 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Freddie Freeman 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Gavin Lux 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Lamb 0.5 -130 0.5 -110

Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Gavin Lux 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Lamb 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Justin Turner 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch White 4.5 +120 4.5 -165
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 76 games (+8.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+6.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 74 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 70 games (+6.00 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+2.55 Units / 15% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 41-36 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 6.38% ROI).

  • 46-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 6.72% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.7 Units / -12.69% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 4.27% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 42-32 against the Run Line (+6.3 Units / 7.14% ROI).

  • 46-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -11 Units / -7.49% ROI
  • 29-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.1 Units / -17.29% ROI
  • 39-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.85 Units / 8.41% ROI

Joe Musgrove has walked 5 of 153 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 95th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OPS of just .579 (333 PA’s) this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .679 — 90th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of just .253 (332 PA’s) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 93rd Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of just .237 (152 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 97th Percentile.

Mitchell White: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (31/100) against Mitch White since the start of last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (5/48) against Mitch White on sliders since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .143 (15-for-105) against Mitch White versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .214 — 97th Percentile.

Mitch White has allowed an OBP of just .188 (112 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .286 — 100th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are just 37-5 (.881) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Padres are just 1-21 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Padres are 38-9 (.809) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Padres are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 22-5 (.815) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .678.

The Dodgers are 35-3 (.921) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Dodgers are 20-12 (.625) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.

The Dodgers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of .734 (1,609 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.

Padres hitters are slugging .265 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.

Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Dodgers hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .334 (6,444 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .329 (4,926 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.4

Padres pitchers have walked 41 of 697 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.84 (367.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Dodgers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season (1,721 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Markus Betts (Dodgers): Rib, D10
  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Edwin Ríos (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary McKinstry (Dodgers): Neck, D10
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Heaney (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Dustin May (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D15
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Caleb Ferguson (Dodgers): Undisclosed, D15
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Adrian Morejon (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.