Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Dodgers (0-0) are -250 favorites vs the Padres (2-1)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (-), ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Julio Urías (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The San Diego Padres (+190) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:37pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 91-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 97-65 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -110O 7.5 -110+190
Dodgers -1.5 -110U 7.5 -110-250

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+15.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 62 away games (+13.20 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Mike Clevinger has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.40 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+15.55 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Julio Urias has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Tony Gonsolin has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Max Muncy has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 50% ROI)

Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Gavin Lux 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Justin Turner 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Cody Bellinger 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Freddie Freeman 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Gavin Lux 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Justin Turner 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Taylor 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Cody Bellinger 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Freddie Freeman 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Gavin Lux 0.5 +300 0.5 -500
Justin Turner 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Julio Urias 4.5 +105 4.5 -145
Mike Clevinger 3.5 +110 3.5 -155
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 73 of their last 140 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 37 away games (+6.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 50 away games (+5.80 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 159 games (+27.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 89 games (+17.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+16.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 43% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 75-90 against the Run Line (-21.45 Units / -10.39% ROI).

  • 91-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -4.64% ROI
  • 77-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -7.56% ROI
  • 83-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -0.88% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 97-65 against the Run Line (+26.25 Units / 13.34% ROI).

  • 111-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 1.78% ROI
  • 67-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.65 Units / -14.39% ROI
  • 84-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.95 Units / 5.58% ROI

Mike Clevinger has allowed a slugging percentage of .635 (33 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .427 — sixth Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has not walked any of the 21 batters that he has faced this month (1 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .272 (56-for-206) against Mike Clevinger in non-two strike counts this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .328 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (71/208) against Mike Clevinger in non-two strike counts this season — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 10th Percentile.

Julio Urías: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 73% (912/1,250) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 83.7 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (152 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 87.9

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 72% (1,048/1,461) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.

Julio Urias has a strike rate of 69% (1,807/2,622) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 93rd Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are 31-12 (.721) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are 46-37 (.554) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 25-89 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Dodgers are 43-3 (.935) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Dodgers are 56-24 (.700) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Dodgers are 54-27 (.667) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .327 (3,337 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .307.

The Padres are batting just .230 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,473 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 67% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .764 (3,757 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .693.

Dodgers hitters have an OBP of .336 (8,886 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 71 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (8 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

Padres pitchers have walked 12 of 89 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.80 (1435.1 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

The Dodgers have allowed 2.90 runs per game (235/81) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

The Dodgers have won 51% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Michael Grove (Dodgers): Knee, D15
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Amaya (Dodgers): Undisclosed, D60
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Phillip Bickford (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • Christopher Taylor (Dodgers): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.