- The Dodgers are -165 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Pedro Avila
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Gavin Stone
- Watch the game on SportsNet LA
The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 67-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 80-62 ATS.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -135 | O 9.5 -110 | +140 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +110 | U 9.5 -110 | -165 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 72.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+23.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 48 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+15.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- James Outman has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+13.50 Units / 103% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 50 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)
Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Stone | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
| Pedro Avila | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 137 games (+11.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 65 away games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.63 Units / 51% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 away games (+3.20 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 73 of their last 122 games (+25.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 69 of their last 116 games (+24.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 59 games at home (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+6.24 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.18 Units / 21% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 69-75 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -6.53% ROI).
- 67-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -36.8 Units / -17.58% ROI
- 60-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.85 Units / -14.24% ROI
- 74-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.65 Units / 5.52% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 80-62 against the Run Line (+20.8 Units / 12.2% ROI).
- 87-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.85 Units / 1.68% ROI
- 82-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +23.5 Units / 14.99% ROI
- 53-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -36.55 Units / -23.46% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pedro Avila has walked 6 of 24 batters (25%) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 68% (32/47) against Pedro Avila this season — tied for 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (62/100) against Pedro Avila this season — 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Kyle Freeland threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (279/503) of opposing batters in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 20% (55/278) versus Michael Lorenzen in 2022 — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 94th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen walked 15 of 91 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen had a strike rate of just 62% (234/377) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.
Opponents batted just .254 against Michael Lorenzen (17-for-67) when he was behind in the count in 2022 — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 91st Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are just 2-12 (.143) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .432.
The Padres are just 14-27 (.341) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Padres are just 11-112 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Padres are 44-7 (.863) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 174-27 (.866) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Dodgers are 38-17 (.691) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Dodgers are 74-7 (.914) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Dodgers are 38-16 (.704) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .405 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .454.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are just 2-12 (.143) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .432.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 17 double plays in 354 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Dodgers hitters have 153 extra-base hits out of 347 total hits (44%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .773 (3,590 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Dodgers have scored 1.63 runs per game (494/303) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (3,466 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Padres pitchers have walked 9 of 44 batters (20%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (121.2 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 403 of 5,252 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.28 (1385.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Lat, D15
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Senger Peralta (Dodgers): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Kelly (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
- Jonathan Deluca (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Gus Varland (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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