- The Dodgers are -165 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Michael Lynn
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 68-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 80-63 ATS.
Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -140 | O 9 +100 | +140 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +115 | U 9 -120 | -165 |
Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 70.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+22.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+12.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 38 games (+11.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+16.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+15.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- James Outman has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+12.50 Units / 89% ROI)
- Max Muncy has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)
Dodgers vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Dodgers vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Will Smith | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Dodgers vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Dodgers vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 138 games (+10.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 66 away games (+9.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.73 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 43 away games (+2.20 Units / 4% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 123 games (+26.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 69 of their last 117 games (+23.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 58 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games at home (+7.34 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.18 Units / 25% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 70-75 against the Run Line (-10.45 Units / -5.91% ROI).
- 68-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -36.8 Units / -17.38% ROI
- 61-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.85 Units / -13.52% ROI
- 74-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.6 Units / 4.82% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 80-63 against the Run Line (+19.75 Units / 11.51% ROI).
- 87-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 1.4% ROI
- 83-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +24.55 Units / 15.55% ROI
- 53-83 when betting on the total runs Under for -37.6 Units / -23.96% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (46/149) against Michael Wacha this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (561/1,182) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (274/584) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (45/132) against Michael Wacha in two-strike counts this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance Lynn has an ERA of 5.97 (159.2 IP)this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.91 — fourth Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of .545 (104 Total Bases / 191 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — second Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of .553 (230 Total Bases / 416 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — second Percentile.
79% of Lance Lynn’s called strikeouts are outside this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Padres are just 2-12 (.143) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Padres are just 6-119 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Padres are just 11-112 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Padres are just 14-27 (.341) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Dodgers are 174-27 (.866) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Dodgers are 38-16 (.704) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Dodgers are 38-17 (.691) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Dodgers are 104-49 (.680) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .325 (6,000 PA’s) on the road since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Padres hitters are slugging just .417 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 17 double plays in 355 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .771 (3,615 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Dodgers hitters have 154 extra-base hits out of 353 total hits (44%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .452 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have walked 11 of 52 batters (21%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have allowed 3.77 runs per game (283/75) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.66.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.47 (679.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have walked 406 of 5,332 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 813 of 11,197 batters (7%) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.31 (1394.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Dodgers pitchers had an ERA of 2.54 (718.1 IP) on the road in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Wander Suero (Dodgers): Back, D15
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Lat, D15
- Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Senger Peralta (Dodgers): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Kelly (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Dodgers): Hamstring, D60
- Jonathan Deluca (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Gus Varland (Dodgers): Knee, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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