Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 02, 2022, 11:02 AM
  • The Dodgers (90-40) are -165 favorites vs the Padres (73-59)
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (11-7), 3.41 ERA
  • Dodgers starting pitcher: Dustin May (1-1), 1.63 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet LA

The San Diego Padres (+140) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Padres are 71-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 78-49 ATS.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Padres+1.5 -145O 8 -115+140
Dodgers -1.5 +120U 8 -105-165

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+20.05 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 49 away games (+18.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 47 away games (+15.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+14.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+14.05 Units / 51% ROI)

Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mookie Betts has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.50 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 67 games (+15.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+13.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 79 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 51 games at home (+13.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 107 games (+10.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 away games (+3.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 126 games (+10.18 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 58-71 against the Run Line (-16.8 Units / -10.53% ROI).

  • 71-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.58% ROI
  • 61-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.5 Units / -6.76% ROI
  • 65-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.65 Units / -1.84% ROI

Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-49 against the Run Line (+25.9 Units / 16.94% ROI).

  • 88-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.15 Units / 3.58% ROI
  • 52-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -21 Units / -15.01% ROI
  • 66-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 5.94% ROI

Yu Darvish has a strike rate of 70% (501/717) in two strike counts this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 84th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .168 (185 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .201 (65 Total Bases / 324 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .245 — 82nd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .160 (60-for-375) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.

Dustin May: Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Dustin May has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.0 innings pitched — James Karinchak has the longest active streak at 22.0.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% (6/23) against Dustin May — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (4/17) against Dustin May against right-handed batters — tied for 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 96th Percentile.

Dustin May has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 10 innings — Jacob deGrom has the longest active streak at 33.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers

The Padres are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Padres are just 7-137 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Padres are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Dodgers are 44-16 (.733) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Dodgers are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Dodgers are 23-83 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .125.

The Dodgers are 108-24 (.818) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .649.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .329 (2,749 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Padres hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters are slugging just .364 at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .782 (1,521 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .684.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .773 (3,393 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .695.

The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 72% at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .790 (3,588 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 460.0

The Padres have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Padres pitchers have walked 69 of 1,179 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (1323.2 IP) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

Dodgers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Dodgers have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Dodgers have won 58% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Dodgers vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • Victor González (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gonsolin (Dodgers): Forearm, D15
  • Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Yency Almonte (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Brusdar Graterol (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
  • Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): ACL, D60
  • Kevin Pillar (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
  • James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Kahnle (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duffy (Dodgers): Hand, D60
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.