- The Padres are +100 favorites vs the Giants
- Padres vs Giants Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Giants TV Channel: NSBA | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (+100) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-120) on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco, CA.
This season, the Padres are 67-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 49-69 ATS.
Padres vs Giants Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 1-1, 7.11 ERA
- Giants starting pitcher: Robbie Ray 9-5, 2.88 ERA
Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +170 | O 7.5 -105 | +100 |
| Giants | +1.5 -210 | U 7.5 -115 | -120 |
Padres vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 away games (+24.00 Units / 480% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.40 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Robbie Ray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+10.70 Units / 134% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.30 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 77 games (+18.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 105 games (+13.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 away games (+11.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 48 games at home (+16.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games at home (+13.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games at home (+12.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+2.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.60 Units / 10% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 64-55 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 3.93% ROI).
- 67-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 4.6% ROI
- 50-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -17.02% ROI
- 66-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.2 Units / 8.55% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Giants are 49-69 against the Run Line (-21.65 Units / -14.75% ROI).
- 59-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.6 Units / -10.81% ROI
- 53-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.45 Units / -8.79% ROI
- 59-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Giants vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Giants vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Casey Schmitt (SF) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Giants vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Matt Chapman (SF) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers (SF) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Giants vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes (SD) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Robbie Ray (SF) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 32% (161/505) against Nestor Cortes in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 34% (135/403) against Nestor Cortes in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Nestor Cortes allowed a slugging percentage of .321 (117 Total Bases / 364 ABs) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .254 — eighth Percentile.
Nestor Cortes allowed a slugging percentage of .510 (130 Total Bases / 255 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — fifth Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Robbie Ray has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (21/133) against Robbie Ray’s breaking pitches this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .204 (105-for-514) against Robbie Ray this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 85th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (60/190) against Robbie Ray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Padres are 27-7 (.794) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Giants (Ranks 23rd runs scored) today.
The Padres are 47-31 (.603) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Giants (Ranks eighth runs allowed) today.
The Padres are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 9-48 (.158) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Giants are 4-52 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .041.
The Giants are 11-45 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Giants are 19-115 (.142) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters struck out just 799 times in 4,486 PA’s (18%) against RHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting just .211 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .666 (2,121 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Giants are batting just .297 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Giants hitters are slugging just .335 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 23% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 35% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents are hitting just .227 against Padres pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
