- The Padres (72-59) are -145 favorites vs the Giants (61-67)
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (8-6), 2.96 ERA
- Giants starting pitcher: Robert Wood (8-11), 5.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-BA
The San Diego Padres (-145) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (+120) on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 3:45pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Padres vs Giants Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Padres are 70-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 56-69 ATS.
Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | O 7.5 -105 | -145 |
| Giants | +1.5 -145 | U 7.5 -115 | +120 |
Padres vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 26 away games (+18.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 48 away games (+17.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 46 away games (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+14.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+13.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+12.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+9.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 106 games (+11.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 away games (+2.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+1.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Giants: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+14.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 58-70 against the Run Line (-15.8 Units / -9.97% ROI).
- 70-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -5.14% ROI
- 60-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.5 Units / -7.53% ROI
- 65-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -1.09% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 56-69 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -13.92% ROI).
- 60-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -26 Units / -13.93% ROI
- 59-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -3.44% ROI
- 58-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -5.56% ROI
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has walked 9 of 272 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 96th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has not walked any of the 60 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters this month (5 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (9-for-48) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .333 — 99th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .281 (83 Total Bases / 295 ABs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — 18th Percentile.
Robert Wood: Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (147/400) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (270/798) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (283/863) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Alex Wood has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (497/1,436) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 58-20 (.744) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Padres are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are 24-7 (.774) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Padres are just 2-45 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 22-122 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Giants are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Giants are 48-4 (.923) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Giants are just 27-36 (.429) on the road this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are averaging 3.97 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Padres are batting just .231 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (2,711 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting just .213 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Giants hitters have a groundball batting average of just .213 with runners on base since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Giants are batting just .227 on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Giants have a winning percentage of 58% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6
Padres pitchers have walked 68 of 1,170 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers have walked 211 of 3,128 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Giants pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 769 of 10,815 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants pitchers have walked 979 of 13,055 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Giants vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gregory Santos (Giants): Groin, D60
- Austin Slater (Giants): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Belt (Giants): Knee, D10
- Donovan Walton (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D60
- Joseph Bart (Giants): Concussion, D7
- Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Long (Giants): Oblique, D60
- Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
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