- The Padres are -120 favorites vs the Giants
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Giants starting pitcher: Ryan Walker
- Watch the game on NBCS-BA
The San Diego Padres (-120) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (+100) on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Padres vs Giants Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 35-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 39-34 ATS.
Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -105 | -120 |
| Giants | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -115 | +100 |
Padres vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 63% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 29 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+7.55 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Wilmer Flores has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+11.75 Units / 90% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- Logan Webb has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
Giants vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Giants vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Giants vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Crawford | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Giants vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+21.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 games (+13.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 54 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 62% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 35-38 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -7.76% ROI).
- 35-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.25 Units / -15.51% ROI
- 25-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.65 Units / -31.3% ROI
- 45-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.05 Units / 22.86% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 39-34 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 4.03% ROI).
- 41-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 3.33% ROI
- 35-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -5.51% ROI
- 36-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -2.32% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 54% of the time (136/252) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
8 of Yu Darvish’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 8th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 88th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has struck out 29% (52/179) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 84th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (178/306) this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 13th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 86.7 MPH on fastballs in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Ryan Walker has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (16/37) over the last 14 days (5 games) — 3rd lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Ryan Walker has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (16/37) — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% (34/86) against Kyle Hendricks’ changeup in 2022 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — eighth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are 7-7 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Padres are 25-34 (.424) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Padres are just 32-3 (.914) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 13-5 (.722) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Giants are 100-2 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Giants are 28-22 (.560) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Giants are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .218 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Padres hitters have 77 extra-base hits out of 178 total hits (43%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .620 (840 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Padres hitters have drawn 638 walks in 6,292 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
The Giants are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Giants hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,488 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Giants hitters have 686 strikeouts in 2,737 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Giants hitters have an OBP of .398 (228 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,759 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 131 of 2,094 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Cobb (Giants): Oblique, D15
- Scott Alexander (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Wilmer Flores (Giants): Foot, D10
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (Giants): Right side tightness, Day-to-Day
- Heliot Ramos (Giants): Oblique, D60
- John Brebbia (Giants): Lat, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Giants): Forearm, D10
- Luis González (Giants): Back, D60
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Left Arm, D60
- Thomas Stripling (Giants): Back, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
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