- The Padres are -110 favorites vs the Giants
- Padres starting pitcher: Matthew Waldron
- Giants starting pitcher: Sean Manaea
- Watch the game on NBCS-BA
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-110) on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Padres vs Giants Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 78-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 71-87 ATS.
Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Giants | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Padres vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+14.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Blake Snell has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+12.35 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Logan Webb has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 60% ROI)
Giants vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Giants vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Giants vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joc Pederson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Giants vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Waldron | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Sean Manaea | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +110 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 151 games (+13.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 73 away games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.62 Units / 51% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 111 games (+25.02 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 144 games (+18.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 81 games (+18.03 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games at home (+7.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+3.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 79-79 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -2.84% ROI).
- 78-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.75 Units / -13.09% ROI
- 66-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.3 Units / -14.38% ROI
- 82-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 6.07% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 71-87 against the Run Line (-26.75 Units / -13.08% ROI).
- 78-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -7.8% ROI
- 68-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -16.22% ROI
- 87-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.25 Units / 7.69% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to June 24th — tied with Ben Lively for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Matt Waldron had a first-pitch strike rate of just 41% (9/22) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Matt Waldron has a first-pitch strike rate of just 41% (9/22) over the past seven days (1 games) — 3rd lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 62% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 64% (7/11) against Matt Waldron — 7th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .765 (26 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .413 — second Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed an OBP of just .130 (23 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — best in NL over the last week; League Avg: .302 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .320 (8-for-25) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .160 — first Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of .765 (26 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .409 — second Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Padres are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Padres are just 3-63 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are 129-3 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Giants are just 23-43 (.348) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Giants are 64-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Giants are 20-11 (.645) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Padres hitters have drawn 892 walks in 8,707 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 478 walks in 4,359 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Giants hitters have 922 strikeouts in 3,687 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Giants are batting just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .687 (1,755 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (3,753 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have allowed 3.74 runs per game (303/81) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.65.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 397 of 5,890 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Giants vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keaton Winn (Giants): COVID-19, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Mark Mathias (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Jakob Junis (Giants): Cervical strain, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Giants): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Crawford (Giants): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Cobb (Giants): Hip, D15
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Arm, D60
- Cole Waites (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Scott Alexander (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Kyle Harrison (Giants): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Padres): Elbow, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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