• The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
• Padres vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Padres / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | PDTV

The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on August 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Padres are 66-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 58-65 ATS.

Padres vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Casey Mize 4-7, 3.38 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 4-12, 4.02 ERA

Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+18.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+14.20 Units / 57% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+19.00 Units / 238% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 20 games at home (+17.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.75 Units / 108% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 away games (+7.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+5.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.60 Units / 15% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.15 Units / 80% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 66-56 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 2.49% ROI).

• 66-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 3.04% ROI
• 56-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -11.35% ROI
• 65-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 2.76% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 58-65 against the Run Line (-11.15 Units / -6.97% ROI).

• 60-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.5 Units / -6.39% ROI
• 60-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -7.31% ROI
• 64-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -1.96% ROI

Guardians vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Padres are 7-3 (.700) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

The Padres are 7-3 (.700) since the 2025 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

The Padres were 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .498.

The Padres are 7-3 (.700) since the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Guardians are just 3-7 (.300) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are just 3-7 (.300) since the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Guardians were 33-4 (.868) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

The Padres are batting .250 with two outs this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Padres are batting .368 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Padres have answered-back in 37% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — highest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .367 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .219 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .227 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .218 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .666 (1,436 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .269 against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 658 times this season — 5th fewest in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 0.0 feet — — tied for shortest in MLB

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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