- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Guardians starting pitcher: Hunter Gaddis, 2.07 ERA
The San Diego Padres (+115) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Thursday, March 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Goodyear.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Guardians Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 3-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 3-4 ATS.
Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 10.5 +100 | +115 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +145 | U 10.5 -120 | -135 |
Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 61.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+1.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- No trends found
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 150 games (+8.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 73 games at home (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -19.07% ROI).
- 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -42.04% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -12.5% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 7.87% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 3-4 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -14.94% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -14.37% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -16.77% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 11.11% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Gaddis has limited playing time.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 52-7 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres batted just .230 at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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