- The Mariners are -110 favorites vs the Padres
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo, 4.50 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
The San Diego Padres (-110) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (-110) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EST in Peoria.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Padres vs Mariners Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Padres are 3-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 0-4 ATS.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | +1.5 -175 | O 11.5 -110 | -110 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +145 | U 11.5 -110 | -110 |
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 57.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.90 Units / 104% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 away games (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 3 of his last 5 away games (+1.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Taylor Trammell has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Adam Frazier has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.55 Units / 85% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 away games (+10.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games at home (+18.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 99 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games at home (+11.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 99 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 4-1 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 45.8% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 18.33% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 15.04% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -20.56% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 0-4 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -58.88% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -23.68% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 16.82% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .165 (17-for-103) against Seth Lugo last season — tied for 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .227 — 91st Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .279 (41-for-147) against Seth Lugo last season — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 10th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 21% (60/281) against Seth Lugo last season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 28% (153/537) versus Logan Gilbert last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 34% (172/508) against Logan Gilbert with two-strikes last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .276 (107-for-388) against Logan Gilbert last season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — eighth Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Padres are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 32-9 (.780) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Mariners are 41-11 (.788) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Mariners are 9-59 (.132) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Mariners are 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 62-10 (.861) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .383 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Padres batted just .230 at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Padres hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
The Mariners are batting just .305 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Mariners are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Padres have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mariners vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
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