• The Mariners are -140 favorites vs the Padres
• Padres vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• Padres / Mariners TV Channel: MRTV | PDTV | KING

The San Diego Padres (+115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-140) on May 15, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in Seattle, WA.

This season, the Padres are 25-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 17-28 ATS.

Padres vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Randy Vasquez 4-1, 3.05 ERA
• Mariners starting pitcher: Emerson Hancock 3-1, 3.26 ERA

Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Friday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Padres vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 47% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+13.30 Units / 47% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.15 Units / 35% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+11.90 Units / 297% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+20.00 Units / 200% ROI)
• Cole Young has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.95 Units / 60% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Mitch Garver has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.45 Units / 94% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.65 Units / 38% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+6.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+2.10 Units / 5% ROI)

Mariners Best Bets Today:

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+6.35 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 66% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+5.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+4.80 Units / 6% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 22-20 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.96% ROI).

• 25-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 7.47% ROI
• 18-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -14.9% ROI
• 23-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 7.17% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 17-28 against the Run Line (-7.85 Units / -16.39% ROI).

• 22-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -13.91% ROI
• 20-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -13.14% ROI
• 24-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 4.47% ROI

Mariners vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mariners vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Padres are 4-18 (.182) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Padres are 11-6 (.647) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Padres are 5-15 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.

The Padres are 12-8 (.600) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .457.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Mariners are just 2-9 (.182) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Padres (18th in runs scored).

The Mariners are 23-15 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mariners are 10-71 (.123) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .093.

The Mariners are 6-79 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .045.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .601 (326 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .319 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Padres are batting just .222 this season — lowest in MLB.

The Padres are batting just .209 against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mariners are batting just .199 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .328 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .282 (488 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mariners hitters have an OPS of just .610 (488 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Padres pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .270 against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends

Mariners pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 71% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

Bet now on Padres vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM

Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.